Average Arctic sea ice extent for November set a record low, reflecting unusually high air temperatures, winds from the south, and a warm ocean. Since October, Arctic ice extent has been more than two standard deviations lower than the long-term average. Antarctic sea ice extent quickly declined in November, also setting a record low for the month and tracking more than two standard deviations below average during the entire month. For the globe as a whole, sea ice cover was exceptionally low.

In November 2016, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 9.08 million square kilometers (3.51 million square miles), the lowest November in the satellite record. This is 800,000 square kilometers (309,000 square miles) below November 2006, the previous lowest November, and 1.95 million square kilometers (753,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for November. For the month, ice extent was 3.2 standard deviations below the long-term average, a larger departure than observed in September 2012 when the Arctic summer minimum extent hit a record low.

At this time of year, air temperatures near the surface of the Arctic Ocean are generally well below freezing, but this year has seen exceptional warmth. The overall rate of ice growth this November was 88,000 square kilometers (34,000 square miles) per day, a bit faster than the long-term average of 69,600 square kilometers (26,900 square miles) per day. However, for a brief period in the middle the month, total extent actually decreased by 50,000 square kilometers, or 19,300 square miles—an almost unprecedented occurrence for November over the period of satellite observations. A less pronounced and brief retreat of 14,000 square kilometers (5,400 square miles) occurred in 2013.

Ice growth during November as a whole occurred primarily within the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas, as well as within Baffin Bay. Ice extent slightly retreated in the Barents Sea for the month. Compared to the previous record low for the month set in 2006, sea ice was less extensive in the Kara, Barents, East Greenland, and Chukchi Seas, and more extensive in Baffin Bay this year.

In the 1980s, Joe’s Pond summer resident Jules Chatot, often visited his camp in the winter or early spring to ride snowmobiles, play cards and socialize with friends and family—it was like “deer camp” in the dead of winter, or “spring break” with snow, March blizzards and muddy roads.

The weather was a favorite topic of conversation when Jules and his friends went to West Danville for morning coffee at the Joe’s Pond Country Store or to pick up supplies at Hastings Store. Someone would always ask, “When do you think the ice is going out?”

To make life more interesting, wagers would often be made. When money was involved, Jules kept track of each guess in a pocket size notebook—and collected $1 for each bet. He was president of the Joe’s Pond Association in 1987, when he and his buddies got the idea to turn the rapidly expanding friendly game into a real contest. Every year the ice went out a little differently, so they had to be creative in how to be fair about establishing an actual date and time.

Be sure to fill out each ticket stub carefully with your name and address so we will be able to contact you if you are a winner. Return ticket stub(s) with the proper amount of money to: JPA, P.O.Box 111, W Danville VT 05873. Tickets must be in or postmarked on 4/1 at the latest (tickets can be submitted on 4/1). Good luck—and thanks for playing the game!

NOTE: in the event of equipment failure, the iceout committee will determine the time of iceout.